Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes through the Lens of SDGs in Semarang, Indonesia

Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) are occurring rapidly around the globe, particularly in developing island nations and driven mainly by human activities. Over the last 20 years, LULCC in Indonesia has been driven by human drivers, including increasing population, rural to urban migration and economic development resulting in denser and larger urban centers. With the world’s fourth-largest population and a rising middle class, Indonesia faces increases in consumption, particularly fossil fuels, leading to greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, urbanization and economic development have led to LULCC marked by urban expansion, commercial agriculture, deforestation and decreasing biodiversity.

In a new journal article published in the journal of Sustainability, Sucharita Gopal and Mira Kelly-Fair, alongside researchers from Boston University and the Diponegoro University Center for Coastal Rehabilitation and Disaster Mitigation Studies (CoREM), examine sustainable development and LULCC in Semarang, Indonesia. Using the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the authors determine potential policies to address LULCC due to increasing population, suburbia and rubber plantations between 2006-2015.

Main findings:

• Using remote sensing and GIS analysis, Gopal and other researchers determined that most LULCC was occurring in Semarang’s outlying districts like Tembalang and Mijen, urban landscapes previously occupied by forests, plantations, agriculture and aquaculture.
• The transitions included a change in farming from agriculture to rubber plantations, a cash crop and an increase in urban areas in previously rural or village areas.
• Some of the SDGs conflict with one another, especially for a coastal city on an island.
  • For example, preserving land ecosystems opposes the need to feed Semarang’s burgeoning population.
• The best policies for Semarang are district-specific since there are disparate LULCC occurring around the metropolitan area.
  • Policies in Tembalang should focus on discouraging urban sprawl, while Mijen policies encourage the production of food crops, such as rice, in areas already utilizing farming.

To tackle the challenges posed by LULCC, the researchers emphasize the need for an effective system of urban planning and governance. Significant district-level policies should focus on urban sustainability planning and careful balancing of built urban and green spaces to constrain urban sprawl. They advise monitoring social vulnerability in each district to assess physical exposure to climate change. However, the researchers suggest future studies to monitor the continuous changes in Semarang and to provide further suggestions to policymakers.