非洲开发银行年会对中国在非洲的能源融资意味着什么？
By Oyintarelado (Tarela) Moses
This week, the African Development Bank (AfDB) convenes its annual meetings in Accra, Ghana under the theme of Achieving Climate Resilience and a Just Energy Transition for Africa. As countries throughout the region experience the effects of climate change, from floods in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa to severe droughts in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, the meeting will be one of many litmus tests for how African countries perceive the climate adaptation and mitigation finance gaps, as well as how they plan to mount just energy transitions.
Addressing climate finance demand throughout the region will require collaboration with internal and external actors. Working with external partners already exists within AfDB governance. The AfDB’s governors represent 54 African regional member countries and 27 non-regional member countries. Regional and non-regional members have voting powers according to the shares of capital stock they hold in the Bank and both groups can make special contributions to the Bank’s special funds. African governments hold 60 percent of the voting power, with Nigeria, Algeria and South Africa as the top regional member shareholders. Non-regional members hold a 40 percent share; the US, Japan and Germany hold the top non-regional member shares, while China holds one percent of the voting powers.
Considering China’s longstanding connection with the AfDB and its role as a major source of energy finance to the continent (albeit mostly in the fossil fuel sector), how could the AfDB work with China to increase finance for a low-carbon transition in Africa?
China and the AfDB have a partnership dating back to 1985 when China became a non-regional member. In 2014, AfDB and China’s Central Bank, the People’s Bank of China, established the Africa Growing Together $2 billion ten-year fund. This fund has provided co-financing for several projects, including $50 million to the Nigeria Electrification Project in 2018 and $20 million to the 50-megawatt Malagarasi hydropower plant in Tanzania in 2021. In 2016, China contributed around $97 million to the African Development Fund, the AfDB’s concessional fund for 38 least-developed regional members. The Export-Import Bank of China (CHEXIM), China Development Bank (CDB) and the Agricultural Bank of China have also signed joint MOUs with AfDB to promote co-financing and collaboration on AfDB priority areas.
Since 2000, China has contributed to energy finance in the region, though mostly to fossil fuel sectors. According to the China’s Global Energy Finance Database, 20 percent of Chinese policy bank energy financing from 2008-2020 went to Africa, in the form of around $46 billion in signed loans for coal, oil, gas, hydropower, geothermal, solar, wind and other energy projects with an unspecified technology type. However, of this financing, loans for renewable energy projects were relatively limited. CHEXIM contributed $361 million and $611 million in total loans for the solar and wind sectors respectively, while no lending from CDB to those sectors has been recorded. Some examples of projects include a $293 million loan signed in 2013 for the Adama Wind Farm II project in Ethiopia, a $136 million loan signed in 2016 for the Garissa Solar Power project in Kenya and a $70 million loan signed in 2020 for the Mafeteng Solar PV Power plant in Lesotho.
During the same time, AfDB loaned $1 billion to solar power projects, $461 million to wind projects and $386 million to projects with both solar and wind components to regional members, which indicates more appetite for renewable energy finance than China has been willing to meet so far.
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In recent months, China’s commitment to step up support for clean energy and guidance associated with greening the BRI have increased the intensity of the push factors for extending finance for renewable energy. On the “pull” side, several African countries have pledged to increase renewable energy based on their Nationally Determined Contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement. However, an energy transition is not just about energy. It is a political economic transition that requires countries to bring along powerful actors in the fossil fuel industries, account for winners and losers, ensure equitable access to power and weigh global demand for their energy sources.
Some recent events may dampen demand: European pivots from Russia to Algeria, Egypt, Angola, Senegal and Nigeria for oil and gas; regional fiscal and debt constraints; and advocacy for a just energy transition that emphasizes the need for some fossil fuels as a bridge to cleaner energy.
As these “push and pull” factors engage in a tug of war with current events, the AfDB meetings could highlight the energy priorities and demands emerging from the region. Discussions at the AfDB annual meetings will illuminate how African countries grapple with these factors as they impact climate finance and plans for a just energy transition. The meetings could also highlight how the AfDB plans to work with external partners such as China to address these challenges. For China, there are many established avenues from which they can engage in supporting climate resilience and just energy transitions in Africa.
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